In other words, over 8 in 10 Menendez supporters will. For example, while a Rutgers-Eagleton poll from Wednesday showed Menendez leading Hugin 51-46, 37 of Hugin’s supporters said they were eager about their choice, compared to only 19 of Menendez’s supporters.
But while the Menendez scandals have helped Hugin’s chances - we account for scandals in our fundamentals-based forecasts - the effect (R+8.2) doesn’t appear large enough to overcome the Democratic leans in the other components of the fundamentals. Still, one metric by which Hugin outperforms Menendez is on favorability. 2 The other two versions of our Senate model - the Classic, which adds in race fundamentals, and the Deluxe, which adds fundamentals and expert handicapping - put Menendez’s chances at 9 in 10 or better. To put this in perspective, we give Republicans a 5 in 6 chance (83 percent) of winning Mississippi’s special election - and no one is calling that a toss-up. Bob Menendezs ethics problems and a relentless campaign of ads highlighting them from his Republican challenger, Bob Hugin, has left Menendez in. That could still happen, but it hasn’t yet.Īs of Friday afternoon, the FiveThirtyEight Senate model’s Lite forecast, which relies on just state and national polls, gives Menendez a 7 in 8 chance of winning re-election, or 87 percent. A new poll by Stockton University found that Sen. But if the race were very close, we would expect at least one or two polls to give Hugin a slight edge. Incumbent Senator Robert Menendez is locked in a statistical dead heat with his Republican challenger, pharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin, according to this morning’s Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll. In April, Monmouth University recorded a 21-point lead.
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6 election, according to poll numbers of likely voters who say they lean toward. The new poll results are significantly worse for Menendez than two previous surveys, both of which had him up by double digits over Hugin. Now, to be clear, the margins in those surveys have varied: Sometimes Menendez led by as few as 2 points, other times by double digits. Menendez leads with 45 percent to Hugins 43 percent five weeks before the Nov. The Senate Democrats top super PAC said Tuesday it would spend 3 million on an ad tying Republican Senate candidate Bob Hugin to President Donald Trump. Despite having one of the worst approval ratings of any senator, Menendez has led every single poll of the race. 1īut “toss-up” seems too generous to Menendez’s Republican opponent, Bob Hugin.
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Democrats already face a tough Senate map, and it would be bad news for them if they were to lose a seat in a state that is 13 points more Democratic than the nation. Bob Menendez - including a near-miss in federal court - have dominated the race, and the Cook Political Report has now moved the race from lean Democratic to toss-up just 11 days before the election. Is the New Jersey Senate race a toss-up? The scandals of Democratic Sen. Women back Menendez by 57 percent to 38 percent over Hugin, and the incumbent leads 67 percent to 26 percent among non-white voters, in the Quinnipiac poll.